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2 min read
In a move straight out of the 1800s, the Trump administration has triggered a global stock market crash with broad, unnuanced tariffs. Trillions have been wiped from global indices, and Australia hasn’t escaped the fallout — with $160 billion lost in a single morning.
Trump defended the strategy by referencing the 1880s, when the U.S. collected tariffs faster than it could spend them. But history shows these policies rarely end well. Protectionist tariffs helped spark the 1873 panic and deepened the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Today’s economic instability — compounded by geopolitical tensions, China’s slowdown, and chaotic U.S. policymaking — has global markets on edge. Even U.S. officials admit the tariffs may be short-lived.
So what does this mean for Australian property?
A Market That Moves Differently
Unlike equities, property tends to respond slowly to volatility. The last real dip in prices (2017–18) wasn’t driven by global shocks, but by tighter lending standards here at home.
Right now:
• Loan delinquency rates remain low
• Most owners aren’t being forced to sell
• Supply remains tight.
• Interest rates are easing.
• Migration, while lower, still supports population growth.
Even if stock markets wobble further, those fundamentals continue to underpin housing demand.
What About the Dollar?
A weaker Aussie dollar means higher construction costs — but also increased interest from foreign buyers. We may see selective shifts rather than a structural collapse.
Bottom Line
We’re in volatile times, but real estate remains grounded in long-term fundamentals. Unless there’s a truly global crisis — and even then — Australian property is more likely to bend than break.
Still, in the Trump era, nothing’s off the table.
